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ADP:EURONEXT PARISAeroports de Paris Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-29 - not real-time

$277.58

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

ADP has delivered a solid Q3 FY2026 performance, posting 7% revenue growth and a 10% rise in adjusted EPS, both beating consensus expectations. Margins continue to improve, with adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 80 basis points and operating margins hovering around 30%, while the company maintains a robust ROE of roughly 71%, underscoring the leverage of its high‑margin SaaS model. The stock trades at $277.58, comfortably above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, and the MACD remains bullish, yet the RSI of 74 signals an overbought condition and the price is flirting with the calculated resistance near $278. Valuation metrics present a mixed picture: the DCF fair value of about $203 suggests the market is pricing in a ~7% premium, whereas the forward P/E of 22.7 is below the industry average of 31.5, indicating relative value. Dividend yield sits at 2.57% with a 60% payout ratio, supported by strong free cash flow of $4.75 B, making the payout appear sustainable. Overall, ADP combines strong earnings momentum, attractive dividend income, and a defensively low‑beta profile, but short‑term upside is limited by near‑term technical overboughtness and a valuation premium.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • RSI in overbought territory (74)
  • Price at immediate resistance around $278
  • Strong quarterly earnings beat

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent 7% revenue growth and margin expansion
  • Sustainable dividend yield of 2.57% with solid cash flow
  • ROE of ~71% indicating efficient capital use

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Recurring SaaS revenue and high client retention
  • Valuation premium relative to DCF fair value
  • Low beta and defensive positioning in the HR software niche

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.00%
Profit Margin20.12%
P/E Ratio25.9
ROE71.21%
ROA5.95%
Debt/Equity69.26
P/B Ratio17.5
Op. Cash Flow$5.5B
Free Cash Flow$4.7B
Industry P/E31.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI74.0
Support$222.10
Resistance$277.99
MA 20$245.67
MA 50$232.00
MA 200$236.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index86.8

Valuation

Fair Value$203.03
Target Price$256.87
Upside/Downside-7.46%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.57%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.03
Volatility41.70%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.